China's official NBS Manufacturing PMI disappointed in December - will Caixin do the same?

Later today we get the latest manufacturing PMI from China, the Caixin/S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for December 2023:

• due at 0145 GMT, which is 2045 US Eastern time
• expected 50.4, prior 50.7

Over the weekend the Chinese government official PMIs, from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), were published, with manufacturing a huge disappointment:

• China Dec Manufacturing PMI 49.0 (vs. 49.5 expected) & Services 50.4 (50.5 expected)

On some of the key subindexes:

• new orders sub-index at 48.7, contracting for a third month
• new export orders index were 45.8 in December, contracting for the ninth straight month
• sub-index of factory gate prices was at 47.7, contracting for a third straight month - a further sign of deflation in the economy thsat'll weigh on business profits

The official non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI), was a miss. coming in at 50.4, from 50.5 expected, but on the plus side up from November's 50.2.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) summed the data up:

• "The current external environment is increasingly complex, severe, and uncertain"
• "Some companies in the survey reported that reduced overseas orders and insufficient domestic effective demand are the main difficulties faced by the companies"

Weak demand, both on- and off-shore, are weighing on China's economic recovery.

China's leader Xi Jinping spoke over the weekend, making positive noises but lacking detail:

• ICYMI - China's Xi Jinping made vague promises on the economy in a speech

2024 is a year of the Wood Dragon, starting from February 10th, 2024