China’s factory profits surge, but weak domestic demand clouds sustainability of recovery

  • The strong profit data may bolster short-term confidence in China’s manufacturing recovery and commodity demand, though lingering weakness in investment and consumption suggests momentum could fade without further policy support.
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Recap - China’s industrial profits jump 21.6% as production rebounds:

21.6% year-on-year in September is the fastest pace since November 2023

  • production recovered
  • policy support helped stabilise factory earnings
  • increase followed a 20.4% gain in August, marking two strong months of profit growth
  • over the first nine months of 2025, total industrial profits rose 3.2% from a year earlier

Officials attributed the improvement to stronger output, slower factory-gate price declines, and government measures to curb overcapacity and reduce excessive price competition. Firm export demand, particularly from emerging markets, also supported earnings despite ongoing U.S. tariffs.

Analysts cautioned that the rebound remains fragile, with growth partly flattered by last year’s low base.

Domestic demand is still subdued, investment continues to contract, and labour market weakness could limit further gains in profitability.

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