China’s factory and service PMIs contract again as holiday boost fades, recovery softens

  • The broad PMI slowdown reinforces concerns over China’s domestic demand and property-sector drag, keeping pressure on commodity currencies, Asian equities and China-sensitive plays.
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Data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) over the weekend confirmed China’s economy lost momentum in November as both factory and service-sector gauges slipped further into contraction, highlighting an uneven recovery and persistent strains in property-linked activity.

The official manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.2 from 49.0, its eighth straight month below 50, signalling continued weakness despite modest improvements in production and new orders.

  • High-tech manufacturing stayed in expansion at 50.1, while energy-intensive industries posted a mild rebound.
  • Small firms saw the strongest improvement in nearly six months, though large manufacturers softened.

Non-manufacturing activity was weaker. The services-and-construction PMI fell to 49.5, its first contraction since late 2022 and below forecasts.

  • Officials attributed the pullback largely to the fading boost from October’s Golden Week holiday.
  • Services were dragged by ongoing property-sector malaise, though areas such as rail transport, telecoms and financial services held above 55.
  • Construction activity ticked up to 49.6 on stronger near-term expectations, but new non-manufacturing orders slumped to 45.7, underscoring fragile demand.
  • Market sentiment improved modestly, with the expectations index rising to 53.1, led by metals and aerospace-related industries.

Overall, the composite PMI dipped to 49.7, reinforcing that China’s recovery remains fragile amid weak domestic confidence, subdued stimulus and persistent external headwinds.

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