China’s economy could maintain a 5% growth rate in 2026, driven largely by unexpectedly strong export performance, according to Macquarie economists.
In a new note, they highlight that exports have been the biggest upside surprise this year, rising 5% year-to-date through October despite the drag from Trump-era tariffs. That pace is only slightly below the 6% increase recorded in 2024, underscoring China’s resilient manufacturing competitiveness.
Macquarie expects exports to expand by 6% next year, far above the market consensus of around 1%. Strong external demand, they argue, is likely to persist and could reduce Beijing’s urgency to roll out aggressive domestic stimulus, even as China continues to face deflationary pressures.
With global growth expected to accelerate, the economists say China may again outperform expectations on trade, supporting its broader growth trajectory into next year.
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A stronger-than-expected export cycle would help stabilise China’s growth outlook, with implications for global supply chains, Asian FX, and commodity demand. Persistent deflation, however, highlights the uneven nature of the recovery and keeps Beijing’s policy stance in focus.
