China National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data January PMIs
Manufacturing 49.7
- expected 49.7, prior 49.5
- manufacturing activity shrank for a third month, US tariffs and fragile Chinese demand cited
- new orders sub-index rose to 50.2 in June from 49.8 in May
- new export orders sub-index improved to 47.7 from 47.5
Non manufacturing 50.5
- expected 50.3, prior 50.3
- the non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index includes services and construction
Composite 50.7
- prior 50.4
- large enterprise PMI rose to 51.2, from 50.7 in May
- medium-sized enterprise PMI 48.6, from 47.5
- small-size 47.3, from 49.3
---
The private survey Caixin Media and S&P Global PMI for China’s manufacturing activity is due on Tuesday:
- analysts forecast 49.0, up from 48.3 in May
---
Background to this:
China NBS Manufacturing PMI (2025 so far)
January 2025: 49.1 — Contracted due to seasonal factors like the Lunar New Year holiday.
February 2025: 50.2 — Rebounded into expansion, driven by post-holiday production recovery.
March 2025: 50.5 — Continued expansion, marking the highest reading since March 2024.
April 2025: 49.0 — Fell back into contraction amid external pressures and a high base effect.
May 2025: 49.5 — Slight improvement, though still in contraction territory.
China NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (2025 so far)
January 2025: 50.2 — Slowed from December, reflecting softer activity in services and construction.
February 2025: 50.4 — Slight uptick, supported by a rebound in construction activity.
March 2025: 50.8 — Accelerated expansion, driven by infrastructure spending and resilient exports.
April 2025: 50.4 — Slight decline, indicating a modest slowdown in services and construction.
May 2025: 50.3 — Edged down, marking the lowest level since January amid concerns over U.S. tariffs.
