Data is here:
China March PMIs. Manufacturing 49.5 (expected 49.9) & Services 48.4 (expected 53.2)
ING looking ahead (this in brief):
- ... next month, most of the population should be able to return to work as usual after this lockdown. As such, we expect both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI should be able to move back above 50 in April.
- there is, without doubt, some uncertainty reflected in these numbers - mainly on supply chains. But we are slightly more optimistic than the market in general.
- We are cutting GDP to 2.275%YoY in 1Q22 from 2.5%, mainly to reflect this round of lockdowns. But we are revising up our forecast for 3Q22 to 6.0%YoY from 5.0%YoY as the issuance of local government special bonds should increase the start of infrastructure projects in 2H21.
