it's been an unusually quiet Atlantic hurricane season and nothing is brewing in the mid-Atlantic but Melissa looks like it will be utterly catastrophic for the southern coast of Jamaica, including Kingston.
The hurricane has already reached Category 5 status and is forecast to strengthen further. It has been sitting south of the island for three days. It will soon make a slow turn north and make landfall on Tuesday morning as at Cat 4 or Cat 5 storm and maximum sustained winds are already 260 km/h.
From the NHC:
Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 12 to 24 hours while Melissa is south of Jamaica over waters of high oceanic heat content and in an environment of relatively low wind shear. Fluctuations in intensity are also possible during this period due to internal dynamics related to eyewall replacements, which are generally difficult to forecast. There's really no practical difference in Melissa making landfall in Jamaica at category 4 or 5 intensity, since both categories can produce catastrophic wind damage. In addition, winds in the mountains of Jamaica are likely to be higher than the winds at sea level, and are likely to add to the seriousness of the situation. Although interaction with Jamaica will lead to some weakening, Melissa is expected to reach southeastern Cuba as a major hurricane, and will also move across the southeastern Bahamas and be near Bermuda as a hurricane.
Winds in the Jamaican mountains could be 30% higher than those listed here with rainfall of 15-30 with 40 inches possible in parts.
"Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely," the NHC writes.
This storm isn't a market mover or a story for energy markets but prayers for Jamaica and anyone in this storm's path.
