There was no jobs report on Friday because of the US government shutdown but one estimate shows it would have been a poor number. The Carlyle Group released its estimate, which showed just 17K jobs created. That would have fallen short of the 54K consensus estimate.
That said, no one can forecast non-farm payrolls and there are those who have dedicated great resources and proprietary data to the task, particularly ADP. The Carlyle Group will be familiar to readers as the investment giant but the group employs 700K people globally through various arms.
Perhaps the most-notable part of the release is that Carlyle is also tracking inflation and sounding alarm bells.
“Inflation looks much more widespread than just looking at the durable goods that would be subject to tariffs," said Jason Thomas, Carlyle’s head of global research and investment management, speaking with Bloomberg.
- Payrolls: Employers added 17,000 jobs in September.
- GDP / Real Final Sales: Underlying growth at 2.7%
- Private Residential Construction: Real private construction spending declined 2.5% compared with year-ago levels.
- Corporate Spending: Business investment rose 4.8% on a three-month moving average seasonally adjusted annual rate basis, led by technology and AI-related capital expenditures.
- CPI Inflation: Energy: down 3.8%; Services less shelter: up 3.3%; durables: up 2.3%.
