USD/CAD is at a seven-week high in its fifth straight day of gains but it's not getting much of a lift from the surge in oil prices today.
A big part of that is that the broader market is now negatively correlated with oil. So the risk aversion that kicks in with an oil price rise weighs on the loonie.
There's also a healthy amount of skepticism about where commodity prices will settle out after we work through the Ukraine volatility.
As for me, I'm bullish on the loonie. Canada lifted mask mandates in Ontario today and there are now virtually no restrictions. Canada's trade surplus is near a 14-year high and improving daily. Canadian consumers are flush with cash from covid supports and house-price rises. I think retail sales will surprise for a number of months.
Technically, I'll be watching the close today to see if the close is below the March low of 1.2587.
