Here is a chart from National Bank that should send a shudder down the back of every CAD bull. It highlights industrial investment in Canada and the US since 1980.
For much of the period, investment was closely aligned with the US outperforming for periods but the trends aligning. That changed in 2015 as a stark divergence hit, opening up a large gap that is worsening by the year. In fact, Canadian investment in industrial machinery and equipment is at the lowest since records began in 1981.
National Bank doesn't mince words:
The divergence with the US is nothing short of appalling. How did we get here? Years of excessive regulation, and a chronic lack of ambition by successive governments in promoting domestic transformation of our natural resources—recently made worse by Washington’s protectionist agenda. That failure has eroded Canada’s manufacturing base and left us at risk of becoming irrelevant in global supply chains.
Economists there highlight some potential spinoffs from a boost in military spending but call for a multi-pronged approach, including:
- A competitive tax regime
- A sweeping reduction in red tape
- Clear laws on developing natural resources
