- Prior -$1.52B
- Trade Balance for March C$-0.51B vs C$-1.56B est.
- Exports C$69.90 billion versus C$70.04B last month
- Imports C$70.40 billion versus C$71.44B last month
The modest decline is still a drag on the Canadian growth, but it was still better than expectations and something closer to 0 is better for US/Canada relations.
PM Carney will be meeting with Pres. Trump today. I wonder what his mood will be on the first visit since it being elected? Some details for the meeting:
Exports to the U.S. fell 6.6% in March, the second monthly decline after January’s record high.
Despite recent drops, exports to the U.S. were still up 2.5% compared to November 2024.
Imports from the U.S. declined 2.9% in March.
Canada’s trade surplus with the U.S. narrowed from $10.8B in February to $8.4B in March.
Trump may not like that imports FROM the US declined -2.9%. That trend may be the new normal as trade is shifted away from the US.
Details of exports:
Total exports edged down 0.2% in March after a 5.4% drop in February.
Exports remain 10.2% higher year-over-year despite back-to-back monthly declines.
US tariffs on Canadian goods began in March and weighed on performance.
Exports to the U.S. fell 6.6%, but were nearly offset by a 24.8% surge in exports to other countries.
In real (volume) terms, exports actually rose 1.8% in March.
6 of 11 product categories saw declines; price effects contributed to the overall drop.
Key product breakdown:
Consumer goods: ↓ 4.2%, with broad declines across product types.
Meat products: ↓ 10.8% (mainly pork to Asia).
Pharmaceuticals: ↓ 7.0% (mostly to the U.S.).
Energy products: ↓ 2.2%
Nuclear fuel & other energy: ↓ 54.5% (less uranium to Netherlands & U.S.).
Natural gas: ↓ 13.7% (due to price declines).
Motor vehicles and parts: ↑ 7.7%
Passenger cars/light trucks: ↑ 11.8%, rebounding from February's 14.5% drop.
Up 22.5% since November 2024, ahead of new U.S. auto tariffs in April.
Other gains:
Farm, fishing & intermediate food products: ↑ 3.1%
Forestry, building & packaging materials: ↑ 3.5%
Metal ores & non-metallic minerals: ↑ 6.5%
Details of imports: Some problems with the data.
Total imports fell 1.5% in March, ending a streak of five consecutive monthly increases.
Largest declines:
Metal and non-metallic mineral products: ↓ 15.8%
Energy products: ↓ 18.8%
In real (volume) terms, imports edged down 0.1%.
Import statistics are based on CBSA administrative data and typically require minimal estimation.
Due to data delays from the CARM digital initiative, estimated values were used for many product categories from November 2024 to March 2025.
Users should interpret March import data with caution, as significant revisions are expected in future updates.
