Canada Q4 current account deficit $0.71B vs $7.71B expected

  • Big beat on the Canadian current account
Canada trade balance
  • Prior was -$9.68 (revised to -$5.27B)
  • 14th consecutive quarter of current account deficits
  • Trade in goods and services balance posted a $3.1 billion deficit in the fourth quarter vs $4.4 billion in Q3
  • Goods deficit $4.5B vs $9.5B prior
  • Foreign investors acquired a record $33.6 billion of federal government bonds
  • Canadian investors acquired $18.5 billion of foreign securities, down from a $56.1 billion investment in the third quarter
  • For the year 2025, the current account balance posted a $30.4 billion deficit, doubling from $15.0 billion in 2024
  • Foreign direct investment in Canada reached $96.8 billion in 2025, the highest level since 2007

Big changes in the quarterly current account data. The narrowing of the deficit in the fourth quarter reflected a significant reduction in the trade in goods deficit, which was moderated by a decrease in the services and investment income surpluses.

In the financial account (unadjusted for seasonal variation), the foreign demand for Canadian bonds remained strong in the fourth quarter, led by an unprecedented foreign investment in federal government bonds. Meanwhile, foreign direct investment in Canada, mainly resulting from merger and acquisition activities, largely surpassed Canadian direct investment abroad.

In terms of trade, gold exports were a big reason behind the improvement.

At the same time, Canada also released payroll and earnings data:

  • Year over year, average weekly earnings were up 1.9% in Dec vs 2.3% in Nov
  • There were 514,600 vacant jobs in Canada, up from 490,900 (+23,700; +4.8%) in November
  • Payroll employment decreased by 35,400 in Dec
  • Payrolls down 28,300 in Dec
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