There was no government shutdown to delay the Canadian employment data so it gets the Friday morning spotlight all to itself.
- Prior was +8.2K
Employment change: -24.8K vs -5.0K estimate, +8.2K prior
Unemployment rate: 6.5% vs 6.6% estimate, 6.8% prior
Full-time employment change: +44.9K vs +50.2 last month
Part-time employment change: -69.7K vs -42.0K last month
Participation rate: 65.0% vs 65.4% last month
Avg hourly wages (permanent, YoY): % vs 3.7% last month
This is a real mixed bag but it's the second negative number in a row. The unemployment rate fell substantially though and that is surely a reflection of the plunge in the participation rate. The full time number is a good one for the second month.
Overall, take this as a negative but it comes as USD/CAD is selling off and it seems to have stabilized the move. The volatility in other markets is dominating FX at the moment so the macro signals are lost.
Looking at recent months, in October 2025, employment rose by 66,600 jobs, beating expectations for a decline, with gains concentrated in part-time work. The unemployment rate fell to 6.9 percent from 7.1 percent. November saw employment increase by 54,000, the third consecutive monthly gain, as the unemployment rate dropped further to 6.5 percent, the lowest in 16 months. However, December showed employment growth stalling at just 8,200 jobs, essentially flat, though full-time positions rose 50,200 while part-time employment fell 42,000. The unemployment rate increased to 6.8 percent as 81,000 people entered the labour force, pushing the participation rate to 65.4 percent. The December results followed strong cumulative gains of 181,000 jobs from September through November.
For background, the Labour Force Survey, published monthly by Statistics Canada, provides comprehensive data on employment, unemployment, and labour force participation across Canada. Released on the first or second Friday of each month at 8:30 a.m. ET, the report surveys approximately 56,000 households and tracks employment changes by industry, province, full-time versus part-time status, and demographic characteristics. The survey measures not only net job creation but also unemployment rates, wage growth, and labour force participation, offering insights into the health of Canada's economy. The data is closely monitored by the Bank of Canada when setting monetary policy and by economists assessing economic conditions. At the moment, there are no further cuts priced in for the Bank of Canada.
