- Prior was -3.0% (revised to -3.1%)
- Wholesale sales vs +2.0% vs +2.3% expected
- Prior wholesale -1.0% (revised to -1.1%)
The Monthly Survey of Manufacturing (MSM), conducted by Statistics Canada, is a key indicator of the health of Canada's industrial sector. The survey covers approximately 6,500 manufacturing establishments classified under the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), tracking sales of goods manufactured, inventories, unfilled orders, new orders, and capacity utilization rates. Data are reported in current Canadian dollars and adjusted for seasonal variation, with constant-dollar estimates also provided to strip out price effects. The survey draws on both direct responses from manufacturers and modelled estimates derived from Goods and Services Tax filings for smaller establishments.
Manufacturing is a significant contributor to the Canadian economy, and the MSM data are widely used by the Bank of Canada, federal and provincial governments, and private-sector analysts to monitor the business cycle and inform policy decisions.
In the most recent data, manufacturing sales fell 3.0% in January 2026 to $68.7 billion, driven overwhelmingly by the transportation equipment subsector, which dropped 18.2%. Motor vehicle sales plunged 38.9% to their lowest level since September 2021, as several major auto assembly plants in Ontario extended their winter shutdowns into January for model changeover retooling and production line maintenance. Machinery manufacturing also declined 5.6%. Overall, sales fell in 11 of 21 subsectors. In constant dollars, the decline was even steeper at 3.9%. Inventories, meanwhile, rose 0.9% to $120.6 billion, pushing the inventory-to-sales ratio up to 1.76 from 1.69 in December — a sign that goods were accumulating relative to weakening shipment activity.
