Citi commodity analysts say OPEC may need to think about further cuts to oil output.
Info comes via a Bloomberg report (gated), main points:
- the “fragile five” (Iran, Iraq, Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela) have struggled with output losses and disruptions for the past few years, but will be adding around 900K barrels a day of production this year, and at least the same again next year
- will be sources of growth for five, four years — or maybe even longer in the case of Iraq and Venezuela
- while growth in oil demand will be constrained by fading expansion in China
- thus the core OPEC+ countries have a problem, and Saudi Arabia and its Persian Gulf allies may face pressure to cut output further
