BP CEO Murray Auchincloss said the oil market is returning to a more balanced dynamic, with global demand expected to grow by around 1% this year and again in 2026.
Auchincloss was speaking in a CNBC interview.
His view, while broadly aligned with consensus forecasts, came with an important but underappreciated implication: non-OPEC supply growth is no longer outpacing demand.
- There is additional supply coming onto the market, but we think that demand and that supply from non-OPEC countries pretty much offsets each other
- And therefore, oil price will be up to OPEC+ to decide where it goes
With supply growth outside OPEC plateauing, the pricing power in oil markets is shifting back toward the producer group. This dynamic could give OPEC+ more influence over crude prices in the near term, especially if global demand continues to firm. The remarks suggest BP sees a more structurally supportive backdrop for oil prices, even without significant demand surprises.
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Auchincloss made similar comments, not quite the same, but along the same lines, back in November of 2024 also. As a monster oil producer BP would like the price to head higher!
