Bond yields slump as ECB rate hike bets ease after PMI data

  • Odds of a 25 bps rate hike next month are down to ~51% from around ~65% before the data

In particular, the ugly one is Germany's set of PMI data as it reinforces the risks of a recession in Europe's biggest economy. 10-year German bund yields have now fallen by over 10 bps on the day to 2.55% and that is leading to a broader drag on yields across the market. 10-year Treasury yields are also now down 6 bps to 4.268% currently.

In turn, this is putting a slight bid in the yen with USD/JPY now down 0.3% to 145.45 on the day. EUR/JPY is the biggest loser here, down 0.5% to 157.40 as the euro slumps after the data.

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