BOJ Tankan Q2 2025:
Bank of Japan Tankan Survey – June 2025 Highlights
Business Conditions (Actual vs Reuters Poll):
Large Manufacturers (June): +13 (forecast: +10). +13 is the highest since December last year.
Large Manufacturers Outlook (Sept): +12 (forecast: +9)
Large Non-Manufacturers (June): +34 (forecast: +34) +34 is the lowest since December last year
Large Non-Manufacturers Outlook (Sept): +27 (forecast: +29)
Small Manufacturers (June): +1 (forecast: -1)
Small Manufacturers Outlook (Sept): -2 (forecast: -3)
Small Non-Manufacturers (June): +15 (forecast: +15)
Small Non-Manufacturers Outlook (Sept): +9 (forecast: +9)
Currency Assumptions (FY2025/26):
All Firms – Euro: ¥157.79
All Firms – USD: ¥145.72
Large Manufacturers – USD: ¥145.87
Other Indicators:
All Firms Employment Index (June): -35
All Firms Financial Conditions Index (June): +11 (vs March: +10)
Large Manufacturers' Production Capacity Index (June): +2 (vs March: +3)
Recurring Profits – Large Manufacturers (FY2025/26): -8.4%
Capex Outlook (FY2025/26):
Large Firms: +11.5% (forecast: +10.0%)
Small Firms: -5.6% (forecast: -7.2%)
BoJ Tankan – Corporate Price Expectations (June 2025):
1-Year Inflation Outlook:
Firms expect consumer prices to rise 2.4% over the next year
(previous survey: +2.5%)3-Year Inflation Outlook:
Firms expect consumer prices to rise 2.4% annually over the next three years
(unchanged from previous survey)5-Year Inflation Outlook:
Firms expect consumer prices to rise 2.3% annually over the next five years
(unchanged from previous survey)
A mixed set of results here. Overall its more positive than expected. Not by a lot, but its indicative of unexpected resilience in Japanese business.
- headline index measuring big manufacturers' business confidence improved
- sentiment among big non-manufacturers worsened slightly, the rising cost of living squeezed consumption
- both manufacturers and service-sector firms expect business conditions to worsen three months ahead,
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Bank of Japan Governor Ueda
