- 3 of 27 economists said BOJ will scale back on monetary stimulus next week
- 11 of 27 economists said that will instead happen in the June meeting
- 16 of 27 economists see BOJ tweaking forward guidance as first step
- 11 of 27 economists see BOJ tweaking yield curve control as first step
- 6 of 25 economists see yield curve control ending in April to June (3 in July to September, 5 in October to December)
- 12 of 24 economists anticipate another yield curve control tweak between April to June
- 12 of 27 economists expect negative rates to end in 2025 or later
There's a lot of numbers jumbled up in there but the key takeaway in my view is that most quarters of the market are not expecting any changes by the BOJ next week. That said, there is an outside chance of a tweak to the yield curve control and if it doesn't come in April, it could still possibly come within 1H 2023.
Besides that, you can see where the emphasis currently lies when it comes to focusing on the BOJ's next move. It will come down to either a tweak in forward guidance or yield curve control settings as the first hint. Expect either of those to jolt markets and get the yen excited, if and when they do come.
