The BLS preliminary estimate of nonfarm payrolls benchmark revision would:
- Decrease March 2025 level of employment by -911K or -0.6%.
The consensus was for a decline of -682K. Forecast range from -200K to -900K
The revision is the largest on record.
In 2024 it showed a revision of -548K
Looking at the different sectors, the biggest decline was in trade, transportation, and utilities (- 226K). There were no sectors that showed a positive revision. Professional business services saw a downward revision of - 158K and leisure and hospitality a decline of - 176K.
Total nonfarm: -911K (-0.6%)
Total private: -880K (-0.7%)
Mining and logging: -4K (-0.7%)
Construction: -29K (-0.4%)
Manufacturing: -95K (-0.8%)
Trade, transportation, and utilities: -226K (-0.8%)
Wholesale trade: -110.3K (-1.2%)
Retail trade: -126.2K (-0.8%)
Transportation and warehousing: +6.6K (+0.1%)
Utilities: +3.7K (+0.6%)
Information: -67K (-2.3%)
Financial activities: -39K (-0.4%)
Professional and business services: -158K (-0.7%)
Private education and health services: -35K (-0.1%)
Leisure and hospitality: -176K (-1.1%)
Other services: -51K (-0.9%)
Government: -31K (-0.1%)
The data shows a weaker employment picture than previously reported, and certainly would motivate the Fed to cut. It also highlights the data problem that has started to creep into the economic releases.
US yields remain higher, with the two-year up 2.2 basis points at 3.517%. The 10-year yield is also up 2.2 basis points at 4.068%.
US stocks are mixed with the Dow industrial average down -0.3%. The S&P is up 0.7% and the NASDAQ index is up 0.10%. Recall the NASDAQ index closed at a record level yesterday.
The S&P index record high close came in at 6507.95 on September 8. The current price is at 6500.70
