Australian Melbourne Institute survey of consumer inflation expectations for October 2025 4.8%
- prior was 4.7%
The latest figure of 4.8 % is up slightly from 4.7 % in September.
- September itself represented a rebound from August’s lower level (3.9%) prior to that.
Historically, inflation expectations in recent years generally fluctuated in the 3–5 % range, so 4.8 % is toward the upper end of recent norms, though not unprecedented.
The fact that expectations are rising — rather than continuing a downward descent — suggests households may be becoming more alert to persistent inflation pressures.
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Higher expectations make it harder for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to anchor inflation expectations, potentially reducing its flexibility to ease rates. If consumers expect inflation near 5%, that may influence wage demands, pricing behavior, and cost-of-living adjustments.
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This is a monthly survey run by the Melbourne Institute (University of Melbourne)
- asks households about how much they expect consumer prices (inflation) to change over the coming 12 months
It is part of a broader Macroeconomic Reports series that also covers wage expectations, consumer sentiment, and other indicators.
