Analysts at BCA are expecting a recession for Europe early in 2025:
- "Our conviction that a recession will engulf Europe early next year is strengthening."
Citing:
- Leading global growth indicators continue to deteriorate
- weakening economic activity ahead
- steepening of the yield curve, the rebound in the VIX, the continued weakening of carry trades, and the relapse of commodity prices are all poor omens
- data softening in Europe
On the euro:
- EUR/USD always depreciates significantly after carry trades have unwound
- wait for the first rate cut from the Fed before selling the euro
