A quicker return to 2% inflation target on the cards for the ECB?

  • That is what the latest ECB survey of professional forecasts (SPF) is suggesting
  • 2025 inflation seen at 1.9% (previously 2%)
  • 2026 inflation seen at 1.9%
  • Long-term inflation, defined as 2029, seen at 2.0%

This is just a tad more optimistic than the ECB's own projections, which sees inflation only returning back to the 2% target in Q4 2025 and averaging at 2.3% for next year. The central bank does put some weight on this survey at times but as always, the hard data will be the ones scrutinised more heavily and rightfully so.

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