Bank of Canada
Here are the key forecast changes (July 2024 → October 2024):
GDP growth:
- 2024: 1.2% → 1.2% (unchanged)
- 2025: 2.1% → 2.1% (unchanged)
- 2026: 2.4% → 2.3% (slight decrease)
CPI Inflation:
- 2024: 2.6% → 2.5% (decrease)
- 2025: 2.4% → 2.2% (decrease)
- 2026: 2.0% → 2.0% (unchanged)
Core Inflation (by Q4):
- 2024: 2.4% → 2.3% (decrease)
- 2025: 2.0% → 2.1% (slight increase)
- 2026: 2.0% → 2.0% (unchanged)
US GDP Growth:
- 2024: 2.3% → 2.8% (significant increase)
- 2025: 2.1% → 2.4% (increase)
- 2026: 2.2% → 2.2% (unchanged)
China GDP Growth:
- 2024: 4.7% → 4.6% (slight decrease)
- 2025: 4.3% → 4.3% (unchanged)
- 2026: 4.0% → 4.1% (slight increase)
Key Commodity Price Changes:
- Oil price assumptions reduced by US$10 per barrel:
- Brent: US$85 → US$75
- WTI: US$80 → US$70
- WCS: US$65 → US$55
Other notable changes:
- Q3 2024 inflation came in 0.2 percentage points lower than expected
- U.S. growth outlook revised up due to stronger consumption, productivity growth, and easier financial conditions
- Near-term China outlook revised down due to persistent property market weakness
- Canadian housing market expected to strengthen due to lower interest rates and recent changes to mortgage insurance rules
USD/CAD was slow to react to the rate cut but has now risen to the highs of the day, up 35 pips to 1.3851.
