The data is here: Australia August Retail Sales: -0.6% m/m (vs. expected +0.3%)
and this now via Westpac
(in brief)
Retail sales have tracked an uneven path in 2017, with weather factors restraining sales in Q1 followed by a recovery through Q2.
- That recovery has been very short lived with the weak July-August sales results suggesting nominal sales may have stalled completely quarter to quarter in Q3
- weakness was broadly based across both store categories and states
the underlying picture for Q3 retail volumes is still unlikely to look good
- pointing to significant downside risks to the Q3 consumption figures in the national accounts and wider GDP growth
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On the trade data: Australia August Trade Balance AUD surplus 989m (vs. expected surplus of AUD 850m)
WPAC :
Imports were flat in the month
Exports a little more resilient than our forecast
- metal ores was the big positive
- falls were evident in coal, likely on lower volumes due to disruptions, and in gold and base metals
For the September quarter, the trade performance to date has been underwhelming
there is the risk that real net exports are flat to a negative in the September quarter, rather than being the positive for growth that we have factored into our Q3 GDP forecast.
