ZEW economist: Overall picture is that we are moving sidewards in band of -10 to -25 pts

  • Not strong indication of moving towards recession (hardly encouraging though, is it?)
  • Economy is continuing to weaken, but no expectation of sharp recession
  • This data is sign that Germany cannot decouple from recessions in large euro zone countries
  • Internal demand will keep Germany out of recession
  • Median recession probability seen by investors is 25 percent

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