NZD in focus
last weeks business confidence data was an improvement on the prior 11 year low of -53.5. This could have been expected due to the timing of the survey questions as I pointed out yesterday. Westpac pushed out their call for a November cut this year to February next year, so the NZD gained a little support. The post FOMC reaction helped NZDUSD up 100+ pips, so the NZD is feeling the support.
The current market pricing has an 85% probability of a 25bps rate cut for November 13. This week we have employment and inflation data out for the NZD the following week. Recovering risk tone is helping the NZD for now, but a souring in risk between US and China would have NZD sellers step back in.
