What's priced in for the major central banks
Federal Reserve
August 1 meeting - Wait, what? There's a meeting next week? (1.3% chance of a hike)
Sept 26 meeting - 80.2% of a hike vs 78.2% a week ago
December 19 second hike odds vs 54.3% 62.9% a week ago
So one hike is a bit more likely but two hikes are significantly less likely.
ECB
- June 2019 hike 18% vs 13% a week ago
Through the summer means through the summer. September 2019 is about 57%
BOE
- August 2 meeting is at 77.5% vs 84.7% a week ago
The market is having some major jitters about next week's meeting. It's going to be the big event on the calendar in the week ahead.
BOC
- 18.9% chance of a hike at Sept 5 meeting, up from 15.0% a week ago
- 62.4% chance of a hike at October 24 meeting, up from 55.9% a week ago
RBA:
- 74.5% chance of a hike at the August 2019 meeting compared to 71.7% a week ago
RBNZ
- Still no prospects for a hike
BOJ
