Via Bloomberg
Yesterday the call-put skew jumped into positive territory on Monday for the first time since 2018 showing that traders are more inclined to wager on oil prices rising rather than falling.Take a look at the chart below
The triggers to watch for are
- Saudi Aramco updating on the damage and state of the damaged oil processing equipment. The longer equipment stays offline, the higher prices will go. Current estimations vary from between 'months' and the end of the month.
- President Trump is 'locked and loaded' and there is genuine risk that this could grow into a wider conflict in the Middle East. However, President Trump is keen to avoid war, but acknowledges that sometimes conflict is unavoidable.
The 50% fib retracement move of the recent leg higher on US oil looks good for longs today.