Flurry of April PMI readings by the UK is to come this week
If Q1's soft patch was heavily affected by weather or transitory factors, then the data this week should reflect that. The market will be eyeing UK economic data quite closely now after the May rate hike by the BOE is all but off the table.
And if Q2 data starts to show signs of encouragement, there will be quarters in the market who will be looking towards August for the net rate hike by the BOE.
Here is what we'll be getting this week:
Today - Manufacturing PMI (expected 54.8, prior 55.1)
Wednesday - Construction PMI (expected 50.5, prior 47.0)
Thursday - Services PMI (expected 53.5, prior 51.7)
Thursday - Composite PMI (expected 53.7, prior 52.5)
The key one to look out for is the services reading, but in general estimates are signalling a rebound in the data after a poor reading in March - believed to be hampered by adverse weather conditions.
The risk here for sterling is that the slowdown is still persistent and that there may be a deeper underlying problem in the economy.
