ADP’s average miss from the actual data is seasonally at its low point in February, varying by only 25k, historically. In other words, the indicator tends to be its most accurate in February, relative to NFP.
Using the past “miss”, this implies that payrolls should come in between 191,000 and 241,000.
For comparison’s sake, January payrolls came in at 243,000 while the consensus forecast for February is 210,000.
