USD/JPY: Worth a medium-term long play?

The strong rally from 76.00 to 84.15 has retraced to it’s 61.8% level at 79.10 and is now stabilising. Reports from prime brokers suggest that the market is heavily short EUR/JPY and I’m guessing that there are similar shorts in risk-aversion plays like AUD/JPY as well. I’m thinking that the trade which is most likely to surprise could be a USD/JPY rally? The market could be right by being short EUR or AUD but the long JPY component might come back to bite them? I’ve opened a small medium-term long USD/JPY trade and I hope to build on it over the next week or so whilst this consolidation is ongoing. At the latest, I’ll exit the strategy on a clean break below the 200-day MA at 78.55.