USD/JPY outlook: Golden week

Japanese financial markets are closed today and will be closed again on Thursday and Friday for Golden Week. This will mean reduced activity in the Yen crosses during the Asian session.

USD/JPY will target stop-loss orders below 80.00 but we can also expect the BOJ to conduct some stealth intervention below there. Corporate sellers are also likely to be less active this week so rallies should encounter less resistance. The market felt that last week’s easing was at the lower end of expectations and bought the Yen but I think this is a short-term reaction and the longer term view of such easing measures must surely be bearish for the JPY?

I favour waiting for the downside stops to get triggered before selling more Yen, in my case that will be against the GBP.

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