'Surprises' pay out, so look out for them
It always pays to think of the surprise outcome early , so you can move fast on the headline. The quicker you are in, the better.
I posted this article earlier looking at the USD/CAD as a good potential short after the FOMC. See link here.
So what will be the surprise here? Well, it won't be a bullish USD. 'King' dollar has been making gains all week. The market is bullish dollar. The surprise is for a dovish FOMC. A note of caution, a shrinking back on the rate of hikes. This will be the surprise and this will be the trade. Just jump into USD/CAD shorts.
Ok, we may not get the 'surprise' today, but that's not the point. The point is to prepare for it, because they will and do come along all the time. As long as there are people involved, there will be surprises.Do you remember Thomas Jordan and the removal of the EUR/CHF peg? I bet you do. So get into the habit and say, 'what would be the surprise outcome' and then ask yourself the next question , 'ok, so what's the trade?'
