Highlights of the first look at Q1 2021 US GDP
- Q4 was +4.3% annualized
- Personal consumption +10.7% vs +10.5% expected
- GDP price index +4.1% vs +2.6% expected
- Core PCE +2.3% vs +2.4% expected
Details:
- Ex motor vehicles +6.6% vs +4.9% in Q4
- Final sales +9.2% vs +3.0% prior
- Inventories cut 2.64 pp from GDP
- Inventories added 1.37 pp to GDP in Q4
- Business investment +9.9% vs +13.8% prior
- Business investment in equipment +16.7% vs +24.9% prior
- Exports -1.1% vs +22.0% prior
- Imports +5.7% vs +29.5% prior
- Trade was a 0.87 pp drag on GDP
- Home investment +10.8% vs +33.5% prior
- Consumer spending on durables +41.4% vs -1.1% prior
- Full report
Only a month ago, the Q1 consensus was -0.1% and for the year it was 5.7%. Those have moved up in a hurry.
Looking through these numbers, the underlying picture is even stronger than the headline. Trade and inventories were a big drag in the quarter but consumer spending and investment bode well going forward. A huge jump in new truck sales skewed durable consumer spending higher but even as that fades, spending elsewhere will pick up the torch.
The market reaction has been modest.
