The second look at the third quarter of 2018
- Initial reading was 3.5%
- Q2 was 4.2%
- Q1 was 2.2%
- Personal consumption 3.6% vs 3.9% expected (initial reading was 4.0%)
- GDP price index 1.7% vs 1.7% expected (initial reading was 1.7%)
- Core PCE 1.5% vs 1.6% expected (initial reading was 1.6%)
- Consumer spending on durables 3.9% vs 6.9% initially
- Business investment +2.5% vs +0.8% initially
- Home investment -2.6% vs -4.0% initially
- Business investment in structures -1.7% vs -7.9% initially
- Year over year GDP 3.0%
- Inventories +$86.6B vs $76.3B initially
- Inventories add 2.27 percentage points to GDP
- After tax corporate profits +3.3% vs +2.0% expected (Q2 was +2.1%)
The huge jump in inventories is worrisome because it could be a sign of massive imports and stockpiling ahead of US tariffs. If that's the case then it will unwind in the months ahead.
