The second look at Q2 2018 GDP
The initial report was 4.1% vs 4.2% expected
Estimates ranged from 3.9% to 4.2%
Personal consumption 3.8% vs 3.9% expected
GDP price index 3.0% vs 3.0% exp
Prior price index 3.0%
Core PCE q/q 2.0% vs 2.0% initially
Consumer spending on durables +8.6% vs +9.3% initially
Business investment 8.5% vs 7.3% initially
Home investment -1.6% vs -1.1% initially
Exports +9.1% vs +9.3% initially
Imports -0.4% vs +0.5% initially
GDP +2.9% y/y vs +2.8% initially
Inventories -$26.9B vs -$27.9B initially
The shift in imports is behind the upward revisions with net exports adding 1.17 pp compared to 1.06 pp prior. Personal consumption added 2.55 pp compared to 2.69 pp in the initially report.
Trade composition is expected to be a major drag on Q2. The belief is that US exports were rushed to get ahead of retaliatory trade tariffs coming into effect from elsewhere.
