October US inflation data:
- Prior was +1.4%
- Ex food and energy +1.6% vs +1.7% exp
- Prior ex food and energy +1.7%
- CPI m/m 0.0% vs +0.1% exp
- CPI m/m ex food and energy 0.0% vs +0.2% exp
- Avg weekly earnings +4.4% vs +4.4% prior
- Avg hourly earnings +3.2% +3.2% prior
This is a miss but it's not going to suddenly spur the Fed into action. Powell is watching the development in covid cases and restrictions. That's going to be dominant in the next few months. Once we exit the pandemic then inflation is going to be top-tier news.
The y/y compos will start to get easier in January and bottom in April.
