I have posted a few NFP previews and will dig u a few more.
This now via Westpac:
- Month to month volatility in nonfarm payrolls remains significant. In the December quarter, gains of 211k and 252k in October and November were followed by a 148k rise in December. The average for the quarter was 204k, a step up from the average of the past six months and 2017 overall.
- We believe this acceleration at end-2017 is noise rather than signal, particularly given the economy is at full employment and the pace of employment growth in 2017 was well ahead of population growth.
- As a consequence, we look for a (still strong) 170k outcome in January. Looking ahead, 2018 is likely to see a further deceleration in employment growth to circa 155k per month, down from around 190k in 2016 and 170k in 2017.
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