I posted the NFP preview from Goldman Sachs a little earlier here
This one now is via Nomura:
- We expect a solid 180k gain in September nonfarm payroll employment (NFP), a slight deceleration from the 201k gain in August but a healthy reading nonetheless.
- We expect manufacturing employment to rebound somewhat in September with a 10k gain after a 3k decline in August. However, continued weakness in manufacturing employment could be an early indicator of trade tensions negatively impacting the US economy.
- Overall, incoming business employment surveys remained elevated during September while initial claims trended lower and the Conference Board reported healthy consumer sentiment with respect to job availability. In this context, we expect the unemployment rate to fall 0.1pp to 3.8%.
But wait, there's more …. the key wages data:
- The key focus for September will be wage growth and whether or not the outsized 0.4% m-o-m gain in August is the beginning of a new, stronger trend.
- We expect average hourly earnings (AHE) to increase 0.3% m-o-m in September, consistent with a tightening labor market. However, business disruptions caused by Hurricane Florence in the Carolinas may have temporarily lowered aggregate hours during the month, adding additional upward pressure to AHE, similar to when Hurricanes Harvey and Irma made landfall in 2017. Thus, there is some additional uncertainty around our September AHE forecast.
