US March 2020 retail sales
- Record one-month fall
- Prior was -0.5% (revised to -0.4%)
- Ex autos and gas -3.1% vs -0.2%
- Ex autos -4.5% vs -4.8%
- Control group +1.7% vs -2.0% expected
- Prior control group 0.0% (revised to -0.2%)
It's all in the details in this report:
- Clothing and clothing accessories stores were down 50.7%
- Food and beverage stores were up 28.0%
- Motor vehicle and parts dealers -25.6%
- Electronics and appliance stores -15.1%
- Health and personal care stores +4.3%
- Gasoline stations -17.2%
- Non-store retailers (online) +3.1%
- Department stores -19.7%
- Food service and drinking places -26.5%
The implication here is that if you were to exclude grocery and pharmacy stockpiling, the real number would be close to -20%. And if you cut out the first half of the month when much of the US was open, that would drop it another 20 percentage points. It all aligns with this slide from JPMorgan's earnings presentation:
What's scary is that the drop this month was a record. April will be much worse.
