I had a preview of the US Q2 GDP data posted yesterday here:
On Monday (US time) Adam had the story on an apparent leak of the data:
Sheesh. The guy is a sieve. We got the NFP leak, now the GDP leak. Not to mention the leak he took in Mosc …. actually nah I'll leave that one :-D
I had seen some previews of the data from a couple of banks, both are under the 4.8% being touted by the Prez though.
BNP Paribas
- forecast 4.0% q/q saar
Citing:
- we expect to be the strongest export print in four years
- a rebound in consumption
We anticipate near-term growth to remain solid, but see fading fiscal stimulus, tighter financial conditions, and continuing trade policy as headwinds going forward.
Commerzbank
- We expect 4.3%
- Private consumption has benefited from strong job growth and the resulting rise in labour income.
- increased spending significantly at federal, state and local levels
- With the exception of residential construction, private investment has also increased considerably
- foreign trade has contributed an estimated 1.5 percentage points to growth, although this was partly due to a special factor, namely exports of soybeans to China being pulled forward before punitive tariffs were imposed
- Growth should slow in the coming quarters though, not least because tighter monetary policy and the trade conflicts are likely to increasingly dampen the US economy
