The demand picture is so bleak
The impossibility of analyzing oil prices is that the demand side of the equation is impossible. The best we have to go on are things like this:
I'm surprised it's even that high. There are estimates that driving is down 70% in Europe.
GasBuddy also reports that US gas prices were down another 8 cents last week to an average of $1.83/gallon including 51 straight days of declines. Here's one as low as 62-cents/gallon in New York.
These latest numbers mesh well with the implied demand in the weekly EIA numbers at 14.446 mbpd compared to 21.86 mbpd normally.
Every country is different, but the lockdown in the US isn't particularly tight compared to Europe. If you extrapolate these numbers, global demand could be down 35 million barrels per day. That puts a 9.7 mbpd OPEC cut into perspective.
