S&P 500 futures are up by 1.8% ahead of North American trading
I would not look too much into the mild bounce so far today as it comes after a rough start to the new month yesterday, with all three major indices in the US falling by over 4%.
Given central bank and government measures to calm the market over the past few weeks, I reckon some choppiness in the current trading landscape isn't too out of the picture.
But when you weigh it against the barrage of virus headlines and the fact that more lockdown measures are being taken up by governments who haven't, with those who have looking to extend them, the economic carnage will just keep continuing for now.
As such, when you weigh sentiment against the backdrop over the next few weeks, I would argue that the path of least resistance remains lower but that doesn't mean that there is no scope for gains every now and then.
For today, the key focus now turns towards the US weekly initial jobless claims report at 1230 GMT. Expectations for that vary wildly as pointed out earlier with Goldman Sachs even revising their initial forecast of 5.25 million to 6 million claims.
In any case, it is going to be another historic number for sure. The market reaction on the other hand, that's far from certain.
We all know that this string of exorbitant jobless claims should continue into April but what if the situation doesn't get any better by May or even June?
And what if these unemployment figures start to translate into something more permanent and hurt the economy in the long-run instead of being a temporary hiccup?
Those questions need time to be answered but in the wake of another jaw-dropping figure today, it could give investors a thing or two to think about ahead of the weekend.
