February 2020 nonfarm payroll highlights:
- Prior report +225K (revised to 273K)
- NFP for February 273K vs 175k est
- Two month revision +85K
- Unemployment rate 3.5% versus 3.6% estimate. Last month 3.6%
- Avg hourly earnings MoM 0.3% versus 0.3% estimate. Prior month remained at 0.2%
- Avg hourly earnings YoY 3.0% versus 3.0% estimate. Prior month remains at 3.1%
- Participation rate 63.4% versus 63.4% estimate. Prior month 63.4%
- Manufacturing jobs +15 K versus minus 3K estimate. Prior month revised to -20K from -12K
- U6 underemployment rate 7.0% versus 6.9% last month
The gain in nonfarm payroll was the largest since May 2018. Not only did the number jobs increase by a very healthy 273K, the prior month's revised up +85K. Wages remain steady but moving higher. The unemployment rate dipped down as well.
The problem with report is that it's looking at the rearview mirror. The market will be more focused on the weekly initial jobless claims data going forward to see if the impact from the coronavirus fear and supply chain shocks/growth prospects are impacting the jobs markets.
Yesterday Jeffrey Gundlach said the 5 year average of the initial claims is around 245k. If jobless claims start moving up toward an above that level that would be a warning sign.
US stocks moved off there lowest levels but the Dow industrial average is still down around -730 points. The NASDAQ index is down -297 points
Spot gold is trading up $3.70 after being up by around $14 in pre-jobs trading
