A look at the market today
A heavy slate of US economic data was mostly negative but it's arguable whether it tells us something we don't already know.
Weekly claims and continuing claims were poor when you factor in PUC data and the May trade balance and inventory numbers will be a further drag on Q2 GDP, which is already going to be historically bad.
On the flipside, durable goods orders were much better than expected so there are some signs of real demand returning.
The market is going to be waiting on the coronavirus data for a sign of what's coming next. The California number was particularly high yesterday at 7149 compared to 5019 the day before (which was also a record). There might be some give-back there because that's a one-day jump that's hard to believe. Elsewhere though, I don't see any big skew.
In terms of market moves, the playbook isn't working in USD/JPY right now because it's disconnected from the risk trade. Even commodity currencies aren't following the script today as they rebound even with stocks struggling.
Maybe that's a sign of a better tone percolating?
