By Ian McKendry
WASHINGTON (MNI) – Weekly initial jobless claims in the U.S. are
expected to fall in the June 4 week, while still hovering above the
400,000 threshold, according economists surveyed by Market News
International.
The MNI survey centers on a forecast of 418,000, a decrease of
4,000 claims and roughly a decrease of 22,000 in unadjusted terms.
Seasonal factors published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics anticipate
claims will decline by 4.8% or 18,000.
A Labor Department analyst told reporters prior to the release of
claims data for the May 28 week that the state of Misssouri reported an
increase in claims due to weather, but said the impact on the national
numbers was small.
Claims in April and May showed a material increase with the 4-week
moving average moving up from 399,250 in the April 16 week to 425,500 in
the latest week.
The Labor analyst said part of the uptick in April, namely the
47,000 jump in the April 30 week, was due to a problem with the seasonal
adjustment. In addition, layoffs in the auto industry — due to supply
chain issues caused by the earthquake in Japan — also contributed to
the rise in claims.
James O’Sullivan, chief economist at MF Global said in a research
note that “we are assuming that the impact of supply chain disruptions
has faded by now.”
O’Sullivan also noted some weather effects, but said “after
allowing for some weather effects, the trend in claims is probably still
below 420,000.”
“The data are suggesting some weakening, but not the ‘falling off
the cliff’ degree implied by some other reports recently,” O’Sullivan
said.
Another factor worth watching in the coming weeks is the impact
summer vacations could have on claims, although the week to week
volatility could be muffled by different schedules and seasonal
adjustment.
The New York City public school calendar says their last day of
school is June 27, the Los Angeles public school calendar says their
last day is June 24, and Chicago’s public school calendar says their
last day is June 17.
** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **
[TOPICS: M$U$$$,MAUDS$]