This data release was delayed by the shut down, but its due at 1330 GMT on 14 February 2019
Preview via RBC:
- should show decent underlying consumer spending activity … More timely retail sales metrics suggest that consumer spending closed out 2018 on very firm footing
- … the consumer went into 2019 with substantial momentum
- Note that collection of survey responses for this report typically go on until the 6th business day following the reference month. With the government shutdown beginning December 22nd and ending Jan 26th, this particular report could suffer from some sampling issues.
Morgan Stanley:
- Based on our primary data, we forecast a 0.3% month-over-month gain in December core retail sales (which we define as retail sales and food services excluding auto dealers, gas stations and home improvement stores). This marks a deceleration from the robust pace of retail sales growth over the past few months but is still consistent with 3.7% real PCE growth in 4Q
- food services category (i.e. restaurants), where our primary data points to a strong 1.8% jump in sales after a number of weaker readings
