US core PCE deflator for July 2019
- US core PCE deflator 0.2% vs 0.2% estimate. Last month 0.1%
- US core PCE deflator YoY 1.6% vs 1.6% estimates. Last month 1.6%
- PCE deflator MoM 0.2% versus 0.2% estimate.
- PCE deflator YoY 1.4% vs 1.4% estimate. The prior month was revised to 1.3% from 1.4% previously reported
- Personal spending rose 0.6% versus 0.5%
- real personal spending rose 0.4% versus 0.3% estimate
The US core PCE inflation data continue to show tame inflation. The low for the core measure reached 1.46% in May (they round the monthly figures). The current rate is 1.58% (rounded to 1.6%). The end of year value was up at 1.97% (rounded to 2.0%.). The high in 2018 reached 2.1% in July 2018.
This chart could be a swayer for the Fed fence sitters to succomb to an ease in September. If inflation is to target 2%, the core PCE data is not close to that level (and has only been above that level for a handful of months).
