Highlights of the August US non-farm payrolls report:
- Prior 255K. Revised to
- Unemployment rate 4.9% vs 4.8% exp. Prior 4.9%
- Average hourly earnings 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% exp m/m.
- Prior average hourly earnings 0.3%
- Avg hourly earnings 2.4% y/y vs 2.5% exp
- Participation rate 62.8% vs 62.8% prior
- Two month net revision: -1K
- Private payrolls 126K vs +180K exp
- Avg weekly hours 34.3 vs 34.5 exp
- Prior avg weekly hours 34.5 (revised to 34.4)
- Manufacturing payrolls -14K vs -3K exp
The headline number is just low enough to be a small disappointment but tack on the weak wage growth, weak hours worked and the rise in unemployment and it's a substantial disappointment.
A September rate hike is almost surely off the table now. The numbers needed to be nearly perfect between now and Sept 21.
